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NOVEMBER 6,  2018

SIGN-OFF – I will be signing off for the night.  I must get my beauty sleep and be sufficiently rested to think brilliant thoughts in the morning.  The Senate races in Arizona, Nevada, and Montana are still too close to call.  In Wisconsin, only a few hundred votes separate Republican Governor Scott Walker and challenger Tony Evers. 

More in the morning.

12:10 A.M. ET:  The Nevada Senate race between incumbent Republic Senator Dean Heller and challenging Democrat Jacky Rosen is too close to call.  Heller is considered vulnerable, and it's here that the GOP could possibly suffer the loss of a Senate seat.  

The Montana Senate race between incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester and Republican challenger Matt Rosendale is also too close to call.

11:59 P.M. ET:  It now appears, although Fox has not called it, that Republican Governor Rick Scott of Florida has been elected to the Senate, defeating incumbent Bill Nelson.  If the count holds, this will be the fourth GOP Senate pickup, with no Republican losses so far.  We are still watching the razor-close race in Arizona.

11:25 P.M. ET: IMPORTANT – Some are calling it, some are not, but it appears Ron De Santis has been elected governor of Florida, defeating Democratic rising rocket Andrew Gillum.

It also appears that Brian Kemp has defeated Stacey Abrams for the governorship of Georgia.  Abrams had hoped to become the first black woman governor. 

So, it appears, unless there's a shocking reversal, that Ohio, Georgia, and Florida, will have GOP governors as we head into the 2020 presidential election. 

11:12 P.M. ET: FOX PREDICTS HAWLEY WILL DEFEAT McCASKILL IN MISSOURI, THIRD GOP PICKUP OF THE NIGHT.

11:06 P.M. ET:  IMPORTANT – Republican Mike DeWine, a former US senator, has been elected governor of Ohio.  Governors play an important role in the election machinery of a state, and having Ohio in Republican hands could be critical in 2020.

10:59 P.M. ET:  The Arizona race between our Martha McSally and the queen of weird, Krysten Sinema, for a US Senate seat, is still close to call, but press reports say that the majority of votes still to be counted come from Republican areas.  Keep fingers crossed.

10:35 P.M. ET:  Mitt Romney has been elected to the Senate from Utah.  Of course you remember him as the Republican candidate for president in 2012.  His relationship with President Trump has been testy, and one must wonder if Mitt entertains dreams of challenging the president in 2020 should Trump falter in the polls.  Just thinkin'.

It appears that GOP Congressman Dave Brat of Virginia, who rose to fame by defeating Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in a primary, may well go down to defeat himself tonight.  His Democratic opponent, Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA operative, holds a narrow lead, but the race has not been called.

10:21 P.M. ET:  FOX DECLARES TED CRUZ THE WINNER IN TEXAS, KEEPING A GOP SEAT. 

This will diminish the rising star of Beto O'Rourke who, properly, fell short.  But he'll be back.

10:14 P.M. ET:  Both the gubernatorial and Senate races in Florida are still too close to call.  We may not know the outcomes tonight.  (Remember the Florida recount in 2000?) 

No decision yet in Missouri, where the GOP is hoping to knock out incumbent Dem Senator Claire McCaskill, a notable survivor. 

9:58 P.M. ET:  Senator Ted Cruz, battling to keep his Senate seat against a vastly financed challenge from nothingburger Beto O'Rourke, has pulled slightly ahead of O'Rourke in the vote count, but the race is still too close to call.

Looks like incumbent Dem Heidi Heitkamp will lose her seat, as predicted, in North Dakota.  That will give the GOP two Senate pickups, assuming it doesn't lose any seats. 

9:32 P.M. ET:  FOX PREDICTS DEMOCRATS WILL CONTROL THE NEW HOUSE.  Clearly, a major setback for our side, although widely predicted.

9:17 P.M. ET:  FOX PREDICTS MIKE BRAUN WILL DEFEAT INCUMBENT DEM SENATOR JOE DONNELLY IN INDIANA, THE FIRST GOP SENATE PICKUP OF THE NIGHT.

But watch Texas, where Ted Cruz may be in some trouble. 

9:10 P.M. :  Fox predicts Joe Manchin, a conservative Democrat, will hold on to his seat in West Virginia.  There had been some hope that he could be upset, but he is very popular in his state, and his vote in favor of confirming Justice Kavanaugh was a masterstroke in politics.

Fox also predicts that ethically overwhelmed Dem Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey will also keep his seat.  For our side, it's the same old story.  In every election cycle we think we see something encouraging in New Jersey, and it never happens.  The Democrats in the state come home on election day. 

9:05 P.M. ET:  FOX PREDICTS MARSHA BLACKBURN WILL WIN HER SENATE RACE IN TENNESSEE.  SHE WILL REPLACE BOB CORKER, A RETIRING REPUBLICAN, SO THIS PROTECTS A GOP SEAT.

8:51 P.M. ET:  Fox reports that Indiana Republicans are confident that Mike Braun will defeat Joe Donnelly, for a GOP Senate pickup.  I gently note that confidence is not votes, but it's better than despair.

8:45 P.M. ET:  Florida still razor-close in both the gubernatorial and senatorial races.  Right down to the wire.  No predictions.  Braun continues his lead in Indiana.  No real surprises anywhere, but, at this hour, it's hard to see the blue wave the Democrats were predicting.  Maybe a light drizzle.

8:16 P.M. ET:  Watch Florida!  Watch Florida! The gubernatorial race between Republican Ron De Santis and Democrat looney tuneser Andrew Gillum is deadlocked.  And the Senate race between Republican Governor Rick Scott and Dem incumbent Bill Nelson is almost even.  Ya never know. 

8:05 P.M. ET:  No important new calls, but watch Indiana.  There is a possibility, but no certainty, that Republican Mike Braun will defeat incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly.  Braun is leading by a good chunk, but Marion County, containing Indianapolis, a Dem stronghold, has not yet reported.

WE HAVE RETURNED – AT 7:44 P.M.

Returns are starting to come in, but remember that areas within states do not report at the same time.  Early numbers can be very deceptive.  There are no surprises thus far.  Some "exit polling" suggests a Democratic wave, but we don't know how some of that polling was done.  I think we'll know much more in an hour or so.  But be entertained up to then.

November 6, 2018       Permalink

THE HOURS OF WAITING – All I can tell you is that voting is very heavy throughout the country.  In some areas the totals for 2014, the last midterm, have already been exceeded.  Some commentators are saying that totals in places may reach 2016 presidential levels.

What does that mean?

The pundits are talking.  I wish they wouldn't.  Theoretically, a high turnout is good for the challenging party, in this year the Democrats.  Also, theory holds that Dems are angry, despise Trump, and are rushing to the polls to send a message.

Well, maybe.

But Republicans are also angry, at the way Trump is treated, and the way Justice Kavanaugh was treated.  And they are angry at illegal immigration.

We're being told that young people are voting in greater-than-usual numbers, and that would almost certainly be good news for the Dems. 

Another point being made by the commentariat is that there was record early voting this year.  Don't read too much into that.  It's been my experience that the first mistake many people involved with politics makes is not understanding the passage of time and its effects.  Cultures change, styles change, ways of doing things change.  One of the greatest changes in American society in the last ten years has been the explosion of online shopping.   It's entirely logical that those who shop from home will also want the convenience of voting from home.  So the boom in early voting may have no political significance at all.

We await numbers.  Discount most of what you hear and read before definitive numbers come in.

November 6,  2018     Permalink

NOVEMBER 5,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

MIRACLE? –  The polling is essentially over.  There may be a few late numbers tomorrow (Tuesday) morning.  One late poll is fascinating.  It reports that, in Michigan, our terrific GOP African-American West Point graduate, candidate for the US Senate, John James, is closing fast on incumbent Dem Senator Debbie Stabenow.  According to this one poll, James is only three points behind Stabenow, who led him by double digits only weeks ago.  There may not be enough time to slam-dunk this, but John James is a man to watch.  You may have seen him interviewed on TV.  First-class guy.

DEMS IN THE PLAYPEN – FROM DAILYWIRE.COM:   Democrats are paying visits to their therapists, complaining of "post traumatic stress disorder," "nightmares," and "anxiety" ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, according to a report from Politico.  "Haunted by memories of 2016, liberals around the country are riven with anxiety in the campaign’s homestretch," the Washington, D.C.-based outlet claims, adding that leftists are grappling with the possibility that most polls -- like in 2016 -- are wrong, and that rumors of a "blue wave" are far overstated.  "Some report literal nightmares about a Democratic wipe-out," Politico adds.  “We're kind of just in the bed-wetting phase now," a Democratic pollster, who worked alongside the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016 said in an interview with Politico. Another, a former Pelosi staffer, said she suffers from nightmares every night, after falling asleep reading the latest polls.  Others are “eating their feelings," according to a YouGov poll released just last week, and still others are complaining of symptoms of "post traumatic stress disorder" or PTSD.  Once the party of Roosevelt, Truman, and Kennedy.  No more.

SARAH SPEAKS – FROM FOX:   Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin blasted "Saturday Night Live" creator and producer Lorne Michaels after a comic on the show made fun of a Texas GOP congressional candidate who lost an eye serving in Afghanistan.  Comedian Pete Davidson joked about retired Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw's eye patch, saying he looks like a pirate in a pornographic film.  Davidson, 24, giggled afterwards, saying, "Sorry. I know he lost his eye in war, or whatever."  While Crenshaw said Monday on "Fox & Friends" that he would not demand an apology from Davidson or the show, Palin fired back at Michaels on Facebook.  "With all the grace I can muster I challenge you to wrestle back control of the show you’d shepherded, but allowed to be hijacked by some pretty sick - and boringly uncreative - young men," she said of Michaels, 73.  "You’re going down with the ship, Lorne. Sad to see your life’s work and worth crumble under the heartless no-talents."   Well said, like the "original" Sarah we once knew.  Is she preparing to return to public life? 

November 5, 2018       Permalink

THE GENERIC BALLOT – AT 1:30 P.M. ET:  The last-minute generic ballot polls are in, and most place the Democratic lead over Republicans at about seven or eight points.  One final poll, though, from Politico/Morning Consult reduces the lead to three points. 

And then there's Rasmussen, the only poll left that tracks every day:

The final Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot before Election Day shows Republicans edging ahead by one point, but in essence, the two parties are tied. The survey has a +/-2 percentage point margin of error.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A week ago, Democrats held a 47% to 44% lead. Since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly surveying in early May, Democrats have led every week but one until early last month. Following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks, but then Democrats moved back ahead. 

The GOP now has a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. But significantly, 20% of these voters remain undecided or prefer someone other than the Republican or Democratic candidates.  

COMMENT:  Rasmussen is the most controversial of all the major polls, and is sometimes considered a Republican poll.  We'll see tomorrow night how accurate they've been.

November 5,  2018     Permalink

ONE DAY – AT 12:48 P.M. ET:  We're a day away from the voting.  I'm inclined to quote William Goldman's line about Hollywood:  "Nobody knows anything."

All kinds of predictions are being made, but nobody knows who will actually turn up at the polls.  We're told that Hispanic turnout is expected to be massively larger than expected only months ago, but no one is sure, and no one is sure exactly how Hispanics will vote. 

We're told that young people will turn out massively, but that's always said, and they generally manage to prefer pizza to voting.

The polls themselves are all over the place, although I'll concede that Democrats are probably feeling more optimistic today than Republicans.

One line you keep hearing is that Democrats are afraid of a 2016 repeat, when they were measuring drapes for their new homes in Washington before learning that Hillary wouldn't be moving there, and wouldn't therefore need much help.

The television networks are treating this midterm on the same level as a presidential contest, undoubtedly hoping that they will be reporting a Trump defeat.  One can imagine the smiles on the CNN faces.  And they could be right.

If the Dems do sweep it, they may well do so based entirely on two factors – intense dislike of the president, and the fact that the Democrats today are so far left that they're offering more free stuff than they ever have.  Remember the old line that democracies last until people learn that they can raid the Treasury.  Maybe the raid is about to begin.

November 5,  2018     Permalink